Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 14.835958 18.068528 21.653180 25.897715 30.760135 36.130172 42.482171
2025-10-26 10.401854 14.634164 19.836038 26.586332 34.993515 44.996635 57.665919
2025-11-02 7.550754 12.000695 17.951075 26.244128 37.236619 51.032640 69.351590
2025-11-09 5.828912 10.327902 16.800120 26.372896 39.713093 57.166975 81.191171
2025-11-16 4.531822 8.917734 15.676313 26.226529 41.591394 62.425759 91.983668
2025-11-23 3.448330 7.560337 14.349724 25.517471 42.472675 66.234734 100.883658
2025-11-30 2.905302 6.982395 14.110499 26.339093 45.520895 73.094870 114.147053
2025-12-07 2.283208 6.094101 13.195510 25.946089 46.650259 77.210198 123.690592
2025-12-14 1.878899 5.528119 12.732518 26.197218 48.722061 82.723166 135.371077
2025-12-21 1.392380 4.634603 11.507308 24.982952 48.325751 84.483035 141.620866
2025-12-28 1.185590 4.333325 11.365139 25.635302 50.967814 90.915444 154.929962
2026-01-04 0.990548 3.999137 11.096000 26.008999 53.137309 96.677076 167.404444
2026-01-11 0.813021 3.671141 10.826961 26.434242 55.563170 103.176061 181.610502
2026-01-18 0.681937 3.434166 10.724879 27.182989 58.624218 110.867092 198.008335
2026-01-25 0.520003 3.017181 10.118362 26.838067 59.686832 115.342867 209.549972
2026-02-01 0.411825 2.731737 9.769226 26.969300 61.596469 121.257350 223.514660
2026-02-08 0.316016 2.433758 9.319849 26.820389 62.947666 126.262811 236.160955
2026-02-15 0.225909 2.087896 8.654192 26.098885 63.132131 129.263841 245.641865
2026-02-22 0.190257 1.988618 8.672732 26.934922 66.383332 137.645223 264.109821
2026-03-01 0.138160 1.744072 8.192681 26.535036 67.143504 141.697038 275.561100
2026-03-08 0.107527 1.600765 7.995849 26.790565 69.227307 148.141333 291.145047
2026-03-15 0.067182 1.317530 7.243927 25.554931 68.140946 148.854763 297.120456
2026-03-22 0.054212 1.248218 7.231362 26.218790 71.070431 156.925122 315.745941